Sestao River 1–2 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Sestao River

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fuenlabrada

11/19/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sestao River47%

×Draw30%

Fuenlabrada24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.79

Sestao River

1.23

Fuenlabrada

0.79

Sestao River creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

0.97

creates per match

0.58

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sestao River

0.97

Fuenlabrada

0.58

allows per match

Sestao River

1.00

Fuenlabrada

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

76%

Sestao River or Fuenlabrada

70%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

53%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

21%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

71%

Sestao River 2+ goals

35%

Sestao River 3+ goals

13%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

55%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

19%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

66%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sestao River scores more

47%

level

30%

Fuenlabrada scores more

24%

Sestao River at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff