Sestao River 1–1 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Sestao River

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cornellà

Álex Carbonell 77'

Gaizka Martínez 90+3' (OG)

10/7/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sestao River44%

×Draw30%

Cornellà26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.84

Sestao River

1.19

Cornellà

0.84

Sestao River creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

0.97

creates per match

0.68

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sestao River

0.97

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Sestao River

1.00

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

74%

Sestao River or Cornellà

70%

Draw or Cornellà

56%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

19%

Cornellà wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

70%

Sestao River 2+ goals

33%

Sestao River 3+ goals

12%

Cornellà 1+ goals

57%

Cornellà 2+ goals

21%

Cornellà 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

63%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sestao River scores more

44%

level

30%

Cornellà scores more

26%

Sestao River at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

D. Mirapeix

66'

Jon Cabo← Kepa Uriarte

66'

Jon Guruzeta← Dopi

67'

M. Vilaplana Dachs

69'

A. Leon

69'

Carles Garrido← Marc Tenas

69'

Eudald Vergés← Koffi

75'

Kike López← José Mas

77'

Álex Carbonell

78'

Gonpi← Marc Vilaplana

80'

Álvaro Mateo← Adrián León

88'

Álex Jiménez← Gorka Garai

88'

Álvaro Gete← Leandro Martínez

90'

E. Verges

90'

Canario

90'

J. Guruzeta

90+7'

C. Mendes

90+3'

Gaizka MartínezOwn goal

Sestao

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Calle

66'▲Jon Cabo←▼Kepa Uriarte

66'▲Jon Guruzeta←▼Dopi

80'▲Álvaro Mateo←▼Adrián León

88'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Gorka Garai

88'▲Álvaro Gete←▼Leandro Martínez

Sestao River substitutes

CaboGuruzetaMateoJiménezGeteSanzPuigZeberio

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

69'▲Carles Garrido←▼Marc Tenas

69'▲Eudald Vergés←▼Koffi

75'▲Kike López←▼José Mas

78'▲Gonpi←▼Marc Vilaplana

Cornellà substitutes

GarridoVergésLópezGonpiCherradiHaoAyala