Sestao River 2–0 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Sestao River

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

Sergi García 88'

Asier Córdoba 26'

12/22/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sestao River35%

×Draw28%

Celta de Vigo II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Sestao River

1.13

Celta de Vigo II

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 120 away

0.97

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sestao River

0.97

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Sestao River

1.00

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

63%

Sestao River or Celta de Vigo II

72%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

65%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

14%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

68%

Sestao River 2+ goals

31%

Sestao River 3+ goals

11%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

69%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

33%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

49%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sestao River scores more

35%

level

28%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

37%

Celta de Vigo II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

18'

26'

39'

46'

Miguel Conde← Óscar Marcos

62'

Iago Barreiros← Pablo Gavián

62'

Sergio Díez← Iván Garriel

64'

Leandro Martínez← Alfred Planas

72'

Yoel Crespo← Ángel Arcos

82'

Diego Aznar← Jon Etxaniz

82'

Sergi García← Marcos Bustillo

85'

Vicente Oliveira← Hugo Burcio

88'

Sergi García

90+2'

Carlos Cordero← Adri Miranda

90+2'

Mario Martín← Asier Córdoba

Sestao

Celta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Córdoba

▼

Planas

Manager: Ángel Viadero

64'▲Leandro Martínez←▼Alfred Planas

82'▲Diego Aznar←▼Jon Etxaniz

82'▲Sergi García←▼Marcos Bustillo

90+2'▲Carlos Cordero←▼Adri Miranda

90+2'▲Mario Martín←▼Asier Córdoba

Sestao River substitutes

MartínezAznarGarcíaCorderoMartínGarridoArrieta

Manager: Fredi

46'▲Miguel Conde←▼Óscar Marcos

62'▲Iago Barreiros←▼Pablo Gavián

62'▲Sergio Díez←▼Iván Garriel

72'▲Yoel Crespo←▼Ángel Arcos

85'▲Vicente Oliveira←▼Hugo Burcio

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

CondeBarreirosDíezCrespoOliveiraAntañónSomuahFernándezNoyaMeixús

Match Recap: Sestao River vs Celta de Vigo II

Sestao River beat Celta de Vigo II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2024.

Goals: Asier Córdoba (26'), Sergi García (88').

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.

Sestao River vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sestao River vs Celta de Vigo II