Sestao River 0–1 Balmaseda: Result & Stats

Sestao River

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Balmaseda

2/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sestao River59%

×Draw25%

Balmaseda15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchBalmaseda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.65

Sestao River

1.56

Balmaseda

0.65

Sestao River creates 140% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

0.87

0.42

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sestao River

2.00

Balmaseda

0.87

allows per match

Sestao River

0.42

Balmaseda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Balmaseda →

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

85%

Sestao River or Balmaseda

75%

Draw or Balmaseda

41%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

32%

Balmaseda wins by 2+

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

79%

Sestao River 2+ goals

46%

Sestao River 3+ goals

21%

Balmaseda 1+ goals

48%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

14%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

79%

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.42 · 26 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 2.00 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Sestao River defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sestao River scores more

59%

level

25%

Balmaseda scores more

15%

Sestao River at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff