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Sestao River vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
11/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sestao River65%
×Draw22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.82
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.67

Sestao River creates 172% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sestao River
2.00
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Sestao River
0.42
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
87%
Sestao River or Aurrerá Ondarroa
78%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
35%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
38%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
84%
Sestao River 2+ goals
54%
Sestao River 3+ goals
27%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
49%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
15%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
83%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.42 · 26 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 2.00 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Sestao River defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sestao River scores more
65%
level
22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
13%

Sestao River at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sestao River 4 – 0 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Sestao River beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.