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Sestao River vs Athletic Club II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
8/12/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sestao River60%
×Draw19%
Athletic Club II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
2.33
Athletic Club II
1.29

Sestao River creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sestao River
2.00
Athletic Club II
1.33

allows per match

Sestao River
1.25
Athletic Club II
2.67

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
80%
Sestao River or Athletic Club II
81%
Draw or Athletic Club II
40%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
38%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
90%
Sestao River 2+ goals
67%
Sestao River 3+ goals
41%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
72%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
37%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
75%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 2.00 + Athletic Club II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Athletic Club II attack 1.33 + Sestao River defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sestao River scores more
60%
level
19%
Athletic Club II scores more
20%

Sestao River at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sestao River 4–2 Athletic Club II

Sestao River beat Athletic Club II 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 12, 2023.