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Sestao River vs Arenteiro — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Arenteiro
Arenteiro
12/8/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sestao River43%
×Draw30%
Arenteiro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.18
Arenteiro
0.88

Sestao River creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sestao River
0.97
Arenteiro
0.75

allows per match

Sestao River
1.00
Arenteiro
1.39

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Arenteiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
73%
Sestao River or Arenteiro
70%
Draw or Arenteiro
57%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
18%
Arenteiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
69%
Sestao River 2+ goals
33%
Sestao River 3+ goals
12%
Arenteiro 1+ goals
59%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
22%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
61%
Arenteiro (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sestao River scores more
43%
level
30%
Arenteiro scores more
27%

Sestao River at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Sestao River 2–1 Arenteiro

Sestao River beat Arenteiro 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.