Servette II 1–1 Bavois: Result & Stats

Servette II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bavois

9/3/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 5Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Servette II36%

×Draw23%

Bavois42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette IIExpected goals in this matchBavois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.78

Servette II

1.64

Bavois

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

1.53

creates per match

1.44

2.12

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Servette II

1.53

Bavois

1.44

allows per match

Servette II

2.12

Bavois

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette II+0.00on par

Bavois+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette II ↓

Bavois →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Servette II or draw

58%

Servette II or Bavois

77%

Draw or Bavois

64%

Winning margin

Servette II wins by 2+

18%

Bavois wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Servette II 1+ goals

81%

Servette II 2+ goals

49%

Servette II 3+ goals

23%

Bavois 1+ goals

83%

Bavois 2+ goals

53%

Bavois 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Servette II (draw refunded)

46%

Bavois (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Bavois away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette II attack 1.53 + Bavois defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bavois attack 1.44 + Servette II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Servette II scores more

36%

level

23%

Bavois scores more

42%

Bavois at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff