Servette FC 1–0 Stade Nyonnais: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Nyonnais

A. Lyng 77'

6/30/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade de Frontenex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Servette FC46%

×Draw26%

Stade Nyonnais28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchStade Nyonnais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Servette FC

1.48

Stade Nyonnais

1.11

Servette FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.40

0.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Servette FC

1.17

Stade Nyonnais

1.40

allows per match

Servette FC

0.83

Stade Nyonnais

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Stade Nyonnais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

72%

Servette FC or Stade Nyonnais

74%

Draw or Stade Nyonnais

54%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

23%

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

77%

Servette FC 2+ goals

43%

Servette FC 3+ goals

19%

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

67%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

30%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

62%

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Stade Nyonnais away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.17 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stade Nyonnais attack 1.40 + Servette FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Servette FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Stade Nyonnais scores more

28%

Servette FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'

A. Lyng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff