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Servette FC vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
9/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Servette FC40%
×Draw23%
FC Winterthur37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
1.70
FC Winterthur
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.19
FC Winterthur
1.79

allows per match

Servette FC
1.43
FC Winterthur
2.21

finishing

Servette FC+0.31scores more
FC Winterthur-0.01on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
63%
Servette FC or FC Winterthur
77%
Draw or FC Winterthur
60%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
21%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
82%
Servette FC 2+ goals
51%
Servette FC 3+ goals
24%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
80%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
48%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
52%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.19 + FC Winterthur defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC Winterthur attack 1.79 + Servette FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Servette FC scores more
40%
level
23%
FC Winterthur scores more
37%

Servette FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Servette FC vs FC Winterthur

Servette FC beat FC Winterthur 4-0 in Super League on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Geneva.