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Servette Chênois W vs Basel W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Servette Chênois W
Servette Chênois W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Basel W
Basel W
10/19/2024AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 9Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Servette Chênois W55%
×Draw21%
Basel W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette Chênois W
2.10
Basel W
1.34

Servette Chênois W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

creates per match

Servette Chênois W
2.90
Basel W
1.99

allows per match

Servette Chênois W
0.70
Basel W
1.31

finishing

Servette Chênois W+0.00on par
Basel W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette Chênois W ↓

Basel W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Servette Chênois W or draw
76%
Servette Chênois W or Basel W
79%
Draw or Basel W
45%

Winning margin

Servette Chênois W wins by 2+
33%
Basel W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Servette Chênois W 1+ goals
88%
Servette Chênois W 2+ goals
62%
Servette Chênois W 3+ goals
35%
Basel W 1+ goals
74%
Basel W 2+ goals
39%
Basel W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)
69%
Basel W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette Chênois W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 70 matches

Basel W away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette Chênois W attack 2.90 + Basel W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.10

Basel W attack 1.99 + Servette Chênois W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Servette Chênois W scores more
55%
level
21%
Basel W scores more
24%

Servette Chênois W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Servette Chênois W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: Servette Chênois W 1–2 Basel W

Basel W beat Servette Chênois W 2-1 in AXA Women’s Super League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Trois-Chênes in Chêne-Bourg.