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Serverense vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Serverense
Serverense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Rafael
San Rafael
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense37%
×Draw27%
San Rafael36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serverense
1.27
San Rafael
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 47 away

creates per match

Serverense
1.00
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Serverense
1.55
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Serverense or draw
64%
Serverense or San Rafael
73%
Draw or San Rafael
63%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+
16%
San Rafael wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals
72%
Serverense 2+ goals
36%
Serverense 3+ goals
14%
San Rafael 1+ goals
71%
San Rafael 2+ goals
36%
San Rafael 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)
51%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Serverense scores more
37%
level
27%
San Rafael scores more
36%

Serverense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Serverense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serverense vs San Rafael

San Rafael beat Serverense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Son Servera in Son Servera, Illes Balears.