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Serverense vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Serverense
Serverense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
3/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense42%
×Draw27%
Rotlet Molinar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serverense
1.38
Rotlet Molinar
1.16

Serverense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

creates per match

Serverense
1.00
Rotlet Molinar
0.76

allows per match

Serverense
1.55
Rotlet Molinar
1.76

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par
Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

Rotlet Molinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Serverense or draw
68%
Serverense or Rotlet Molinar
73%
Draw or Rotlet Molinar
58%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+
20%
Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals
75%
Serverense 2+ goals
40%
Serverense 3+ goals
16%
Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
69%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
32%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)
57%
Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Serverense scores more
42%
level
27%
Rotlet Molinar scores more
32%

Serverense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Serverense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serverense vs Rotlet Molinar

Rotlet Molinar beat Serverense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Son Servera in Son Servera, Illes Balears.