Serverense 0–2 Portmany: Result & Stats

Serverense

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Portmany

Borja Íñiguez 46'

Gabri Gómez 20'

12/22/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense39%

×Draw26%

Portmany35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ServerenseExpected goals in this matchPortmany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.27

Serverense

1.36

Portmany

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

1.00

creates per match

0.99

1.55

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Serverense

1.00

Portmany

0.99

allows per match

Serverense

1.55

Portmany

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par

Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

Portmany →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Serverense or draw

65%

Serverense or Portmany

74%

Draw or Portmany

61%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+

18%

Portmany wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals

74%

Serverense 2+ goals

39%

Serverense 3+ goals

16%

Portmany 1+ goals

72%

Portmany 2+ goals

36%

Portmany 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)

53%

Portmany (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Portmany attack 0.99 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Serverense scores more

39%

level

26%

Portmany scores more

35%

Serverense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Serverense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Gabri Gómez

46'

Tomeu Nebot← Toni Martín

46'

Borja Íñiguez

67'

Álvaro Arcos← Pere

67'

Joan Bauza← Álex Barroso

67'

Matgí← Pedro Sánchez

80'

Toni← Roberto Ruiz

86'

Miki Vives← Carlos

Serverense

Portmany

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Tíscar

46'▲Tomeu Nebot←▼Toni Martín

67'▲Álvaro Arcos←▼Pere

67'▲Joan Bauza←▼Álex Barroso

67'▲Matgí←▼Pedro Sánchez

86'▲Miki Vives←▼Carlos

Serverense substitutes

NebotArcosBauzaMatgíVives

Manager: Carlos Luque

80'▲Toni←▼Roberto Ruiz

Portmany substitutes

Toni

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Serverense 0–2 Portmany

Portmany beat Serverense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 22, 2021.

Goals: Gabri Gómez (20'), Borja Íñiguez (46').

The match was played at Estadio Son Servera in Son Servera, Illes Balears.

Serverense vs Portmany — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Serverense 0–2 Portmany