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Serverense vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Serverense
Serverense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense35%
×Draw26%
PE Sant Jordi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serverense
1.27
PE Sant Jordi
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 65 away

creates per match

Serverense
1.00
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Serverense
1.55
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Serverense or draw
61%
Serverense or PE Sant Jordi
74%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
65%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+
15%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals
72%
Serverense 2+ goals
36%
Serverense 3+ goals
14%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
74%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
39%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)
47%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Serverense scores more
35%
level
26%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
39%

PE Sant Jordi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serverense vs PE Sant Jordi

PE Sant Jordi beat Serverense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Son Servera in Son Servera, Illes Balears.