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Serverense vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Serverense
Serverense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Binissalem
Binissalem
1/28/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 26Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense34%
×Draw28%
Binissalem38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serverense
1.16
Binissalem
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 113 away

creates per match

Serverense
1.00
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Serverense
1.55
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Serverense or draw
62%
Serverense or Binissalem
72%
Draw or Binissalem
66%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+
14%
Binissalem wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals
69%
Serverense 2+ goals
32%
Serverense 3+ goals
11%
Binissalem 1+ goals
71%
Binissalem 2+ goals
35%
Binissalem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)
47%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Serverense scores more
34%
level
28%
Binissalem scores more
38%

Binissalem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Serverense 1–1 Binissalem

Serverense and Binissalem drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Son Servera in Son Servera, Illes Balears.