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Sertãozinho U20 vs União São João U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
União São João U20
União São João U20
K. Alves da Silva 39'
Henrique 30'
6/22/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sertãozinho U2034%
×Draw27%
União São João U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
1.16
União São João U20
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
União São João U20
1.00

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
União São João U20
1.37

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

União São João U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
61%
Sertãozinho U20 or União São João U20
73%
Draw or União São João U20
66%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
14%
União São João U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
69%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
32%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
11%
União São João U20 1+ goals
72%
União São João U20 2+ goals
36%
União São João U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
46%
União São João U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
34%
level
27%
União São João U20 scores more
39%

União São João U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União São João U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Henrique
39'
K. Alves da Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sertãozinho U20 vs União São João U20

Sertãozinho U20 and União São João U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Henrique (30'), K. Alves da Silva (39').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo in Sertãozinho, São Paulo.