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Sertãozinho U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
K. Alves da Silva 45+2'
Lucas Ferreira 35'
Paulinho 33'
8/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sertãozinho U2018%
×Draw24%
São Paulo U2058%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
0.84
São Paulo U20
1.73

São Paulo U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
42%
Sertãozinho U20 or São Paulo U20
76%
Draw or São Paulo U20
82%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
6%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
57%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
21%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
5%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
82%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
52%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
24%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
18%
level
24%
São Paulo U20 scores more
58%

São Paulo U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Paulinho
35'
Lucas Ferreira
45+2'
K. Alves da Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sertãozinho U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: Paulinho (33'), Lucas Ferreira (35'), K. Alves da Silva (45+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo in Sertãozinho, São Paulo.