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Sertãozinho U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
Unknown 90+1', 59', 25', 16'
8/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sertãozinho U2015%
×Draw20%
RB Bragantino U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
0.85
RB Bragantino U20
2.04

RB Bragantino U20 creates 140% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
RB Bragantino U20
2.54

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
RB Bragantino U20
0.75

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
35%
Sertãozinho U20 or RB Bragantino U20
80%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
85%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
5%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
57%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
21%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
5%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
87%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
60%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
19%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
15%
level
20%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
65%

RB Bragantino U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
25'
59'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sertãozinho U20 0 – 4 RB Bragantino U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 31, 2024.

Goals: ? (16', 25', 59', 90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo in Sertãozinho, São Paulo.