Sertanense 3–1 Vitória de Sernache: Result & Stats

Sertanense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Vitória de Sernache

4/3/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 21Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sertanense43%

×Draw25%

Vitória de Sernache32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchVitória de Sernache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Sertanense

1.50

Vitória de Sernache

1.27

Sertanense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

1.55

1.00

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Sertanense

1.09

Vitória de Sernache

1.55

allows per match

Sertanense

1.00

Vitória de Sernache

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Vitória de Sernache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

68%

Sertanense or Vitória de Sernache

75%

Draw or Vitória de Sernache

57%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

21%

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

78%

Sertanense 2+ goals

44%

Sertanense 3+ goals

19%

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

72%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

36%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

57%

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sertanense scores more

43%

level

25%

Vitória de Sernache scores more

32%

Sertanense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff