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Sertanense vs União de Leiria — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Sertanense
Sertanense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
3/6/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 19Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sertanense21%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertanense
0.82
União de Leiria
1.50

União de Leiria creates 83% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sertanense
1.09
União de Leiria
2.00

allows per match

Sertanense
1.00
União de Leiria
0.55

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw
47%
Sertanense or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
79%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+
6%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals
56%
Sertanense 2+ goals
20%
Sertanense 3+ goals
5%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
78%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
44%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)
28%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + União de Leiria defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.82

União de Leiria attack 2.00 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sertanense scores more
21%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
53%

União de Leiria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sertanense 0 – 3 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Sertanense 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos in Sertã.