Sertanense 1–1 Mortágua: Result & Stats

Sertanense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mortágua

Bruno Lopes 50'

Diogo Mingachos 26'

9/20/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 1Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sertanense38%

×Draw28%

Mortágua34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchMortágua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Sertanense

1.23

Mortágua

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sertanense

1.09

Mortágua

1.27

allows per match

Sertanense

1.00

Mortágua

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

Mortágua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Mortágua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

66%

Sertanense or Mortágua

72%

Draw or Mortágua

62%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

17%

Mortágua wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

71%

Sertanense 2+ goals

35%

Sertanense 3+ goals

13%

Mortágua 1+ goals

68%

Mortágua 2+ goals

32%

Mortágua 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

53%

Mortágua (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Mortágua away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + Mortágua defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mortágua attack 1.27 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sertanense scores more

38%

level

28%

Mortágua scores more

34%

Sertanense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Diogo Mingachos

50'

Bruno Lopes

65'

Henrique Lourenço← Romário

67'

Iago← Bruno Torres

71'

Jorge Emanuel← C. Kpan

80'

João Silva← Matheus Silva

80'

Simão Pipo← Daniel Pinto

80'

Tagui← Rafael Santos

86'

Tony Silva← Diogo Mingachos

Sertanense

Mortágua

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Natan Costa

67'▲Iago←▼Bruno Torres

71'▲Jorge Emanuel←▼C. Kpan

80'▲João Silva←▼Matheus Silva

Sertanense substitutes

IagoEmanuelSilva

Manager: Paulo Machado

65'▲Henrique Lourenço←▼Romário

80'▲Simão Pipo←▼Daniel Pinto

80'▲Tagui←▼Rafael Santos

86'▲Tony Silva←▼Diogo Mingachos

Mortágua substitutes

LourençoPipoTaguiSilva