Sertanense 0–1 Mafra: Result & Stats

Sertanense

0 – 1

Mafra

Leandrinho 82'

9/25/2021

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sertanense27%

×Draw27%

Mafra47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchMafra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.43

Sertanense

1.01

Mafra

1.43

Mafra creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

0.89

creates per match

1.64

1.22

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Sertanense

0.89

Mafra

1.64

allows per match

Sertanense

1.22

Mafra

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Mafra →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

53%

Sertanense or Mafra

73%

Draw or Mafra

73%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

10%

Mafra wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

64%

Sertanense 2+ goals

27%

Sertanense 3+ goals

Mafra 1+ goals

76%

Mafra 2+ goals

42%

Mafra 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

36%

Mafra (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 0.89 + Mafra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mafra attack 1.64 + Sertanense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sertanense scores more

27%

level

27%

Mafra scores more

47%

Mafra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'

Leandrinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff