Sertanense 0–4 Estoril: Result & Stats

Sertanense

0 – 4

Estoril

Aziz 90+5' (pen), 68'

H. Gomes 37'

A. Clovis 9'

10/9/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sertanense20%

×Draw24%

Estoril56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchEstoril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.69

Sertanense

0.91

Estoril

1.69

Estoril creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

0.89

creates per match

2.17

1.22

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sertanense

0.89

Estoril

2.17

allows per match

Sertanense

1.22

Estoril

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Estoril →

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

44%

Sertanense or Estoril

76%

Draw or Estoril

80%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

Estoril wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

60%

Sertanense 2+ goals

23%

Sertanense 3+ goals

Estoril 1+ goals

82%

Estoril 2+ goals

50%

Estoril 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

27%

Estoril (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 0.89 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Estoril attack 2.17 + Sertanense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sertanense scores more

20%

level

24%

Estoril scores more

56%

Estoril at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Clovis

37'

H. Gomes

68'

Aziz

90+5'

AzizPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff