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Sertanense vs Amarante — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sertanense
Sertanense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Amarante
Amarante
9/24/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sertanense31%
×Draw26%
Amarante43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertanense
1.22
Amarante
1.48

Amarante creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sertanense
0.89
Amarante
1.73

allows per match

Sertanense
1.22
Amarante
1.55

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw
57%
Sertanense or Amarante
74%
Draw or Amarante
69%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+
13%
Amarante wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals
70%
Sertanense 2+ goals
34%
Sertanense 3+ goals
12%
Amarante 1+ goals
77%
Amarante 2+ goals
43%
Amarante 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)
42%
Amarante (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 0.89 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Amarante attack 1.73 + Sertanense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sertanense scores more
31%
level
26%
Amarante scores more
43%

Amarante at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Sertanense 0–2 Amarante

Amarante beat Sertanense 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos in Sertã.