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Serrato Pacasmayo vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
7/15/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo20%
×Draw20%
Union Huaral60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serrato Pacasmayo
1.25
Union Huaral
2.27

Union Huaral creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 66 away

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
3.21
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw
40%
Serrato Pacasmayo or Union Huaral
80%
Draw or Union Huaral
80%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
8%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
71%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
36%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
13%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
90%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
66%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
25%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
20%
level
20%
Union Huaral scores more
60%

Union Huaral at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Serrato Pacasmayo 2–2 Union Huaral

Serrato Pacasmayo and Union Huaral drew 2-2 in Segunda División on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo).