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Serranense vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Serranense
Serranense
FT
0 – 1
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
7/3/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Estádio Senador Zezé Perrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Serranense22%
×Draw31%
Guarani MG47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serranense
0.68
Guarani MG
1.14

Guarani MG creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Serranense
0.22
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

Serranense
1.33
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

Serranense+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serranense ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Serranense or draw
53%
Serranense or Guarani MG
69%
Draw or Guarani MG
78%

Winning margin

Serranense wins by 2+
6%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Serranense 1+ goals
49%
Serranense 2+ goals
15%
Serranense 3+ goals
3%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
68%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
32%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Serranense (draw refunded)
32%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serranense at home — creates 0.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serranense attack 0.22 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.68

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Serranense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Serranense scores more
22%
level
31%
Guarani MG scores more
47%

Guarani MG at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guarani MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Serranense 0–1 Guarani MG

Guarani MG beat Serranense 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Senador Zezé Perrella in Nova Serrana, Minas Gerais.