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Serranense vs CAP Uberlândia — Mineiro - 2 2020

Serranense
Serranense
FT
0 – 1
CAP Uberlândia
CAP Uberlândia
10/22/2020Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Estádio Senador Zezé Perrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serranense33%
×Draw33%
CAP Uberlândia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serranense
0.88
CAP Uberlândia
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Serranense
0.55
CAP Uberlândia
0.60

allows per match

Serranense
1.18
CAP Uberlândia
1.20

finishing

Serranense+0.00on par
CAP Uberlândia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serranense ↓

CAP Uberlândia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Serranense or draw
66%
Serranense or CAP Uberlândia
67%
Draw or CAP Uberlândia
67%

Winning margin

Serranense wins by 2+
11%
CAP Uberlândia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Serranense 1+ goals
59%
Serranense 2+ goals
22%
Serranense 3+ goals
6%
CAP Uberlândia 1+ goals
59%
CAP Uberlândia 2+ goals
22%
CAP Uberlândia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Serranense (draw refunded)
50%
CAP Uberlândia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serranense at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

CAP Uberlândia away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serranense attack 0.55 + CAP Uberlândia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.88

CAP Uberlândia attack 0.60 + Serranense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Serranense scores more
33%
level
33%
CAP Uberlândia scores more
34%

CAP Uberlândia at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "CAP Uberlândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serranense vs CAP Uberlândia

CAP Uberlândia beat Serranense 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Senador Zezé Perrella in Nova Serrana, Minas Gerais.