Serra Branca 2–2 Nacional de Patos: Result & Stats

Serra Branca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nacional de Patos

2/13/2025

League #603 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Serra Branca46%

×Draw24%

Nacional de Patos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serra BrancaExpected goals in this matchNacional de Patos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Serra Branca

1.63

Nacional de Patos

1.25

Serra Branca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Serra Branca

1.50

Nacional de Patos

1.00

allows per match

Serra Branca

1.50

Nacional de Patos

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serra Branca+0.00on par

Nacional de Patos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serra Branca ↓

Nacional de Patos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Serra Branca or draw

71%

Serra Branca or Nacional de Patos

76%

Draw or Nacional de Patos

54%

Winning margin

Serra Branca wins by 2+

24%

Nacional de Patos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Serra Branca 1+ goals

80%

Serra Branca 2+ goals

48%

Serra Branca 3+ goals

22%

Nacional de Patos 1+ goals

71%

Nacional de Patos 2+ goals

36%

Nacional de Patos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Serra Branca (draw refunded)

61%

Nacional de Patos (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serra Branca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Nacional de Patos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serra Branca attack 1.50 + Nacional de Patos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nacional de Patos attack 1.00 + Serra Branca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Serra Branca scores more

46%

level

24%

Nacional de Patos scores more

29%

Serra Branca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Serra Branca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff