Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Serik Spor vs Pazarspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Serik Spor
Serik Spor
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pazarspor
Pazarspor
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAkdeniz Üniversitesi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serik Spor80%
×Draw13%
Pazarspor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serik Spor
2.83
Pazarspor
0.74

Serik Spor creates 282% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Serik Spor
3.00
Pazarspor
0.89

allows per match

Serik Spor
0.60
Pazarspor
2.67

finishing

Serik Spor+0.00on par
Pazarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serik Spor ↓

Pazarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Serik Spor or draw
93%
Serik Spor or Pazarspor
87%
Draw or Pazarspor
20%

Winning margin

Serik Spor wins by 2+
60%
Pazarspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Serik Spor 1+ goals
94%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
77%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
53%
Pazarspor 1+ goals
52%
Pazarspor 2+ goals
17%
Pazarspor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Serik Spor (draw refunded)
92%
Pazarspor (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serik Spor at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Pazarspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serik Spor attack 3.00 + Pazarspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Pazarspor attack 0.89 + Serik Spor defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Serik Spor scores more
80%
level
13%
Pazarspor scores more
7%

Serik Spor at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Serik Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Serik Spor 7–0 Pazarspor

Serik Spor beat Pazarspor 7-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Akdeniz Üniversitesi Stadyumu in Antalya.