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Serik Spor vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Serik Spor
Serik Spor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
2/18/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Ismail Ogan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Serik Spor29%
×Draw24%
Çorum FK47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serik Spor
1.32
Çorum FK
1.73

Çorum FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Serik Spor
1.47
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Serik Spor
2.11
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Serik Spor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serik Spor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Serik Spor or draw
53%
Serik Spor or Çorum FK
76%
Draw or Çorum FK
71%

Winning margin

Serik Spor wins by 2+
13%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Serik Spor 1+ goals
73%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
38%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
15%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
82%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
52%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Serik Spor (draw refunded)
38%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serik Spor at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serik Spor attack 1.47 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Serik Spor defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Serik Spor scores more
29%
level
24%
Çorum FK scores more
47%

Çorum FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Serik Spor 2–3 Çorum FK

Çorum FK beat Serik Spor 3-2 in 1. Lig on February 18, 2026.

The match was played at Ismail Ogan Stadium in Serik.