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Serik Spor vs Batman Petrolspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Serik Spor
Serik Spor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Batman Petrolspor
Batman Petrolspor
10/18/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Roundİsmail Ogan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serik Spor66%
×Draw19%
Batman Petrolspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serik Spor
2.17
Batman Petrolspor
0.89

Serik Spor creates 144% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Serik Spor
3.00
Batman Petrolspor
1.17

allows per match

Serik Spor
0.60
Batman Petrolspor
1.33

finishing

Serik Spor+0.00on par
Batman Petrolspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serik Spor ↓

Batman Petrolspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Serik Spor or draw
86%
Serik Spor or Batman Petrolspor
81%
Draw or Batman Petrolspor
34%

Winning margin

Serik Spor wins by 2+
43%
Batman Petrolspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Serik Spor 1+ goals
89%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
64%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
36%
Batman Petrolspor 1+ goals
59%
Batman Petrolspor 2+ goals
22%
Batman Petrolspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Serik Spor (draw refunded)
82%
Batman Petrolspor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serik Spor at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Batman Petrolspor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serik Spor attack 3.00 + Batman Petrolspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Batman Petrolspor attack 1.17 + Serik Spor defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Serik Spor scores more
66%
level
19%
Batman Petrolspor scores more
14%

Serik Spor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Serik Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Serik Spor 2–1 Batman Petrolspor

Serik Spor beat Batman Petrolspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at İsmail Ogan Stadyumu in Serik.