Sergipe 1–2 ASA: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sergipe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ASA

Matheus Sacramento 70'

Junior Vicosa 45', 20'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sergipe34%

×Draw30%

ASA36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SergipeExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.05

Sergipe

1.02

ASA

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Sergipe

1.19

ASA

1.15

allows per match

Sergipe

0.95

ASA

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sergipe+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sergipe ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sergipe or draw

64%

Sergipe or ASA

70%

Draw or ASA

66%

Winning margin

Sergipe wins by 2+

13%

ASA wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sergipe 1+ goals

64%

Sergipe 2+ goals

27%

Sergipe 3+ goals

8%

ASA 1+ goals

65%

ASA 2+ goals

28%

ASA 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sergipe (draw refunded)

49%

ASA (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sergipe at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

ASA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sergipe attack 1.19 + ASA defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

ASA attack 1.15 + Sergipe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sergipe scores more

34%

level

30%

ASA scores more

36%

ASA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Junior Vicosa

45'

Junior Vicosa

70'

Matheus Sacramento

Sergipe

ASA

⚽2

Manager: Dico Woolley

Sergipe substitutes

FerrazParáFelipeSacramentoHenriqueMoroniMirandaEricsonGuedesSantanaLopesTinga

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

ASA substitutes

ToscanoVianaJailsonBorgesLéoPauloCarlosFlávioBarrosGabrielPapelXavier

Serie D: Sergipe 1–2 ASA

ASA beat Sergipe 2-1 in Serie D on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Junior Vicosa (20', 45'), Matheus Sacramento (70').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.

Sergipe vs ASA — Serie D 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Sergipe 1–2 ASA