Sereď 5–1 Tatran Krásno: Result & Stats

Sereď

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tatran Krásno

4/12/2025

3. liga - West · West - 25Športový futbalový štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sereď70%

×Draw18%

Tatran Krásno12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SereďExpected goals in this matchTatran Krásno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.81

Sereď

2.29

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Sereď creates 183% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

2.40

creates per match

0.81

0.80

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Sereď

2.40

Tatran Krásno

0.81

allows per match

Sereď

0.80

Tatran Krásno

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Tatran Krásno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sereď or draw

88%

Sereď or Tatran Krásno

82%

Draw or Tatran Krásno

30%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+

47%

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals

90%

Sereď 2+ goals

66%

Sereď 3+ goals

40%

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

56%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

19%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)

86%

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.29

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sereď scores more

70%

level

18%

Tatran Krásno scores more

12%

Sereď at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff