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Sereď vs Petržalka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sereď
Sereď
FT
2 – 3
Petržalka
Petržalka
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sereď34%
×Draw24%
Petržalka42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
1.49
Petržalka
1.68

Petržalka creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sereď
1.40
Petržalka
1.75

allows per match

Sereď
1.60
Petržalka
1.58

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Petržalka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
58%
Sereď or Petržalka
76%
Draw or Petržalka
66%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
16%
Petržalka wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
77%
Sereď 2+ goals
44%
Sereď 3+ goals
19%
Petržalka 1+ goals
81%
Petržalka 2+ goals
50%
Petržalka 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
45%
Petržalka (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 1.40 + Petržalka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Petržalka attack 1.75 + Sereď defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sereď scores more
34%
level
24%
Petržalka scores more
42%

Petržalka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sereď vs Petržalka

Petržalka beat Sereď 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Sereď in Sereď.