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Sereď vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Sereď
Sereď
FT
0 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
8/29/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 1Štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sereď52%
×Draw24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
1.70
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.06

Sereď creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sereď
2.40
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Sereď
0.80
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
76%
Sereď or Lokomotíva Zvolen
76%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
48%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
28%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
82%
Sereď 2+ goals
51%
Sereď 3+ goals
24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
69%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sereď scores more
52%
level
24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
24%

Sereď at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Sereď 0–0 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Sereď and Lokomotíva Zvolen drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Sereď in Sereď.