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Serbia vs Scotland — Euro Championship 2024

Serbia
Serbia
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Scotland
Scotlandadvanced
L. Jovic 90'
R. Christie 52'
11/12/2020Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path C - FinalStadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serbia58%
×Draw20%
Scotland23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia
2.29
Scotland
1.38

Serbia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Serbia
2.20
Scotland
0.75

allows per match

Serbia
2.00
Scotland
2.38

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Serbia or draw
77%
Serbia or Scotland
80%
Draw or Scotland
42%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+
36%
Scotland wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals
90%
Serbia 2+ goals
66%
Serbia 3+ goals
40%
Scotland 1+ goals
75%
Scotland 2+ goals
40%
Scotland 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)
72%
Scotland (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Scotland away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 2.20 + Scotland defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.29

Scotland attack 0.75 + Serbia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Serbia scores more
58%
level
20%
Scotland scores more
23%

Serbia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Filip MladenovićSerbiaSerbia · D
7.7

Match Events

11'
N. Milenkovic
44'
D. Gallagher
49'
N. Gudelj
52'
R. Christie↳ C. McGregor
59'
F. Kostic← F. Mladenovic
70'
S. Milinkovic-Savic← A. Katai
70'
N. Maksimovic← L. Jovic
82'
L. Dykes← O. McBurnie
82'
J. McGinn← K. McLean
87'
R. Christie← C. Paterson
90'
L. Jovic↳ F. Mladenovic
108'
S. Mitrovic← U. Spajic
116'
S. O'Donnell← L. Griffiths

Possession

57%Serbia

Shots

15Serbia

Pass accuracy

52%Serbia

Statistics

SerbiaScotland
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots10
9Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target4
9Off Target6
2Blocked0
8Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
656Total Passes495
517Accurate Passes363
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1

Euro Championship: Serbia 1–1 Scotland

Serbia and Scotland drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on November 12, 2020.

Goals: R. Christie (52'), L. Jovic (90').

Serbia controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.