Serbia 4–1 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Serbia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Lithuania

A. Ljajić 90+2'

L. Jović 35'

A. Mitrović 34', 20'

A. Novikovas 71' (pen)

6/10/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Serbia70%

×Draw16%

Lithuania14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SerbiaExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.25

Serbia

2.85

Lithuania

1.25

Serbia creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.20

creates per match

0.50

2.00

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Serbia

2.20

Lithuania

0.50

allows per match

Serbia

2.00

Lithuania

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Serbia or draw

86%

Serbia or Lithuania

84%

Draw or Lithuania

30%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+

49%

Lithuania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals

94%

Serbia 2+ goals

77%

Serbia 3+ goals

53%

Lithuania 1+ goals

71%

Lithuania 2+ goals

36%

Lithuania 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)

83%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 2.20 + Lithuania defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.85

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Serbia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Serbia scores more

70%

level

16%

Lithuania scores more

14%

Serbia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Ljajić

Serbia · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

A. Mitrović

34'

A. Mitrović↳ D. Tadić

35'

L. Jović

39'

Arvydas Novikovas

46'

K. Chvedukas← A. Jankauskas

59'

Domantas Šimkus

69'

D. Petravičius← F. Černych

70'

Aleksandar Mitrović

71'

A. Živković← F. Kostić

71'

A. NovikovasPenalty

77'

N. Valskis← K. Laukžemis

81'

83'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SerbiaLithuania

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots8

7Corners3

17Fouls7

Shots

22Total Shots8

10On Target1

6Off Target2

6Blocked5

13Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

646Total Passes340

567Accurate Passes261

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3