Serbia 5–1 Bolivia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Serbia

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Bolivia

A. Mitrović 68', 23', 4'

B. Ivanović 42'

A. Ljajić 19'

J. Campos 48'

6/9/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Merkur-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Serbia65%

×Draw21%

Bolivia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SerbiaExpected goals in this matchBolivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.79

Serbia

1.96

Bolivia

0.79

Serbia creates 148% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

2.13

creates per match

0.59

1.00

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Serbia

2.13

Bolivia

0.59

allows per match

Serbia

1.00

Bolivia

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par

Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Bolivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Serbia or draw

86%

Serbia or Bolivia

79%

Draw or Bolivia

35%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+

40%

Bolivia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals

86%

Serbia 2+ goals

58%

Serbia 3+ goals

31%

Bolivia 1+ goals

55%

Bolivia 2+ goals

19%

Bolivia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)

82%

Bolivia (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 2.13 + Bolivia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bolivia attack 0.59 + Serbia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Serbia scores more

65%

level

21%

Bolivia scores more

14%

Serbia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Mitrović↳ A. Ljajić

9'

Nikola Milenković

19'

A. Ljajić↳ D. Tadić

23'

A. Mitrović↳ A. Ljajić

42'

B. Ivanović↳ A. Mitrović

46'

L. Milivojević← N. Matić

48'

J. Campos↳ H. Sánchez

51'

L. Vaca← J. Arce

53'

Carlos Anez

57'

J. Ribera← E. Saavedra

63'

M. Grujić← S. Milinković-Savić

63'

L. Ali← H. Sánchez

67'

A. Rukavina← D. Tošić

68'

A. Mitrović↳ L. Milivojević

69'

R. Vargas← J. Campos

70'

A. Prijović← A. Mitrović

75'

R. Rodríguez← L. Justiniano

80'

P. Rajković← V. Stojković

80'

L. Vargas← D. Bejarano

85'

N. Radonjić← D. Tadić

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SerbiaBolivia

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots6

7Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots6

10On Target1

9Off Target5

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1