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Serbia U19 W vs Greece U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Serbia U19 W
Serbia U19 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Greece U19 W
Greece U19 W
L. Zarubica 22'
K. Platania 81'
3/7/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Serbia U19 W71%
×Draw22%
Greece U19 W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19 W
1.63
Greece U19 W
0.29

Serbia U19 W creates 462% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Serbia U19 W
2.25
Greece U19 W
0.33

allows per match

Serbia U19 W
0.25
Greece U19 W
1.00

finishing

Serbia U19 W+0.00on par
Greece U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 W ↓

Greece U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Serbia U19 W or draw
94%
Serbia U19 W or Greece U19 W
78%
Draw or Greece U19 W
29%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 W wins by 2+
41%
Greece U19 W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Serbia U19 W 1+ goals
80%
Serbia U19 W 2+ goals
48%
Serbia U19 W 3+ goals
22%
Greece U19 W 1+ goals
25%
Greece U19 W 2+ goals
3%
Greece U19 W 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 W (draw refunded)
92%
Greece U19 W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Greece U19 W away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 W attack 2.25 + Greece U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Greece U19 W attack 0.33 + Serbia U19 W defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Serbia U19 W scores more
71%
level
22%
Greece U19 W scores more
6%

Serbia U19 W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Serbia U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
L. Zarubica
81'
K. Platania

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serbia U19 W vs Greece U19 W

Serbia U19 W and Greece U19 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on March 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Zarubica (22'), K. Platania (81').