Serbia U19 4–0 San Marino U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Marino U19

J. Šimić 87'

J. Mijatović 77'

U. Kabić 67'

S. Leković 23'

11/20/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Serbia U1982%

×Draw12%

San Marino U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchSan Marino U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.70

Serbia U19

2.94

San Marino U19

0.70

Serbia U19 creates 320% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.63

creates per match

0.25

1.16

allows per match

4.25

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

San Marino U19

0.25

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

San Marino U19

4.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

San Marino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

San Marino U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

94%

Serbia U19 or San Marino U19

88%

Draw or San Marino U19

18%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

62%

San Marino U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

95%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

79%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

55%

San Marino U19 1+ goals

50%

San Marino U19 2+ goals

16%

San Marino U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

93%

San Marino U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

San Marino U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + San Marino U19 defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.94

San Marino U19 attack 0.25 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

82%

level

12%

San Marino U19 scores more

6%

Serbia U19 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

S. Leković

32'

M. Lazetic

46'

J. Šljivić← M. Milovanovic

46'

M. Petković← J. Jevremović

46'

P. Codispoti← S. Gasperoni

57'

M. Spasojević← M. Lazetić

60'

T. Famiglietti← M. Gasperoni

61'

G. Molinari← L. Terenzi

63'

S. Lekovic

67'

U. Kabić

71'

M. Spasojevic

73'

N. Miličić← S. Leković

77'

U. Miladinović← U. Kabić

77'

J. Mijatović

85'

A. Gualtieri← S. Ugolini

85'

F. Domeniconi← S. Riccardi

87'

J. Šimić

90+2'

A. Gualteri

Serbia

San

1

Amici

5

Ciacci

8

Renzi

6

▼

Riccardi

2

▼

Ugolini

4

Guerra

3

▼

Terenzi

13

Zavoli

11

▼

Gasperoni

10

Casadei

7

▼

Gasperoni

12

Kaličanin

20

⚽

Šimić

15

▼

Milovanov

4

⚽

▼

3

5

16

9

▼

Lazetić

11

⚽

▼

Kabić

21

⚽

Mijatović

18

▼

Jevremovi

Manager: J. Damjanović

46'▲J. Šljivić←▼M. Milovanovic

46'▲M. Petković←▼J. Jevremović

57'▲M. Spasojević←▼M. Lazetić

73'▲N. Miličić←▼S. Leković

77'▲U. Miladinović←▼U. Kabić

Serbia U19 substitutes

17Šljivić10Petković19Spasojević14Miličić7Miladinović1Miladinović6Stjepanović2Đurđević8Gordić

Manager: A. Bonesso

46'▲P. Codispoti←▼S. Gasperoni

60'▲T. Famiglietti←▼M. Gasperoni

61'▲G. Molinari←▼L. Terenzi

85'▲A. Gualtieri←▼S. Ugolini

85'▲F. Domeniconi←▼S. Riccardi

San Marino U19 substitutes

20Codispoti9Famiglietti16Molinari17Gualtieri18Domeniconi19Caddy15Valentini12Battistini14Vittori

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs San Marino U19

Serbia U19 beat San Marino U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Leković (23'), U. Kabić (67'), J. Mijatović (77'), J. Šimić (87').

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.

Serbia U19 vs San Marino U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs San Marino U19