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Serbia U19 vs Russia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Russia U19
Russia U19
M. Cvetkovic 88', 61' (pen)
D. Makevic 71'
A. Kasadzhikov 67'
N. Massalyga 46'
10/10/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serbia U1941%
×Draw19%
Russia U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
2.54
Russia U19
2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
3.40
Russia U19
2.67

allows per match

Serbia U19
2.40
Russia U19
1.67

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Russia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Russia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
59%
Serbia U19 or Russia U19
81%
Draw or Russia U19
59%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
24%
Russia U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
92%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
72%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
46%
Russia U19 1+ goals
92%
Russia U19 2+ goals
72%
Russia U19 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Russia U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Russia U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 3.40 + Russia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

Russia U19 attack 2.67 + Serbia U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
41%
level
19%
Russia U19 scores more
41%

Serbia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
N. Massalyga
61'
M. CvetkovicPenalty
67'
A. Kasadzhikov
71'
D. Makevic
88'
M. Cvetkovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Russia U19

Serbia U19 beat Russia U19 3-2 in Friendlies on October 10, 2025.

Goals: N. Massalyga (46'), M. Cvetkovic (61' pen, 88'), A. Kasadzhikov (67'), D. Makevic (71').