Serbia U19 1–2 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Norway U19

M. Popović 43'

S. Olderheim 90+4' (pen), 37'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serbia U1941%

×Draw25%

Norway U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.36

Serbia U19

1.53

Norway U19

1.36

Serbia U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.57

1.16

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Norway U19

1.57

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Norway U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

66%

Serbia U19 or Norway U19

75%

Draw or Norway U19

59%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

20%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

78%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

45%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

20%

Norway U19 1+ goals

74%

Norway U19 2+ goals

39%

Norway U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Norway U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Norway U19 attack 1.57 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

41%

level

25%

Norway U19 scores more

34%

Serbia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Olderheim

40'

A. Rossing-Lelesiit

43'

M. Popović

46'

T. Nyhammer← A. Røssing-Lelesiit

56'

L. Remmem← S. Jacobsen Prestmo

64'

U. Sremčević← V. Kostov

73'

J. Norbye← J. Gonstad

73'

O. Spiten-Nysæter← F. Ardraa

76'

A. Stančić← S. Rakić

82'

O. Spiten-Nysaeter

90+1'

S. Olderheim

90+5'

A. Popovic

90+6'

M. Staer-Jensen

90+6'

A. Kjelsen

90+6'

A. Heredia-Randen

90+6'

D. Djuric

90+2'

T. Engebakken← T. Nyhammer

90+4'

S. OlderheimPenalty

Serbia

Norway

1

4

3

2

6

11

⚽2

Olderheim

7

▼

Gonstad

20

Reitan-Su

17

▼

Ardraa

18

▼

Prestmo

15

▼

12

3

5

6

16

10

⚽

Popović

18

▼

Rakić

14

Bačanin

11

▼

Kostov

20

Jovanović

7

Đorđević

Manager: A. Luković

64'▲U. Sremčević←▼V. Kostov

76'▲A. Stančić←▼S. Rakić

Serbia U19 substitutes

9Sremčević17Stančić22Ugrešić8Mitrović19Mladenović1Džodić13Prodanić21Vukojević

Manager: E. Sel

46'▲T. Nyhammer←▼A. Røssing-Lelesiit

56'▲L. Remmem←▼S. Jacobsen Prestmo

73'▲J. Norbye←▼J. Gonstad

73'▲O. Spiten-Nysæter←▼F. Ardraa

90+2'▲T. Engebakken←▼T. Nyhammer

Norway U19 substitutes

8Nyhammer14Remmem5Norbye9Spiten-Nysæter19Engebakken10Nyheim13Ekorness12Stær-Jensen16Fuglestad

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 1–2 Norway U19

Norway U19 beat Serbia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Olderheim (37', 90+4' pen), M. Popović (43').

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.

Serbia U19 vs Norway U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 1–2 Norway U19