Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Serbia U19 vs Northern Ireland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Northern Ireland U19
Northern Ireland U19
N. Terzić 69'
D. Kamenović 64'
M. Vidosavljević 52' (pen)
C. Palmer 10'
11/17/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 7The Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Serbia U1952%
×Draw20%
Northern Ireland U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
2.31
Northern Ireland U19
1.67

Serbia U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
2.29
Northern Ireland U19
1.33

allows per match

Serbia U19
2.00
Northern Ireland U19
2.33

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
72%
Serbia U19 or Northern Ireland U19
80%
Draw or Northern Ireland U19
48%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
32%
Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
90%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
67%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
40%
Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals
81%
Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals
50%
Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 2.29 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Northern Ireland U19 attack 1.33 + Serbia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Northern Ireland U19 scores more
28%

Serbia U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Palmer
52'
M. VidosavljevićPenalty
64'
D. Kamenović
69'
N. Terzić

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Northern Ireland U19

Serbia U19 beat Northern Ireland U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 17, 2018.

Goals: C. Palmer (10'), M. Vidosavljević (52' pen), D. Kamenović (64'), N. Terzić (69').

The match was played at The Oval in Belfast.