Serbia U19 1–3 Kazakhstan U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kazakhstan U19

D. Milovanovic 9'

I. Bekbolat 51', 47'

T. Ismagulov 25'

6/6/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serbia U1965%

×Draw19%

Kazakhstan U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.01

Serbia U19

2.25

Kazakhstan U19

1.01

Serbia U19 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

0.86

1.16

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Kazakhstan U19

0.86

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Kazakhstan U19

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Kazakhstan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

84%

Serbia U19 or Kazakhstan U19

81%

Draw or Kazakhstan U19

35%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

42%

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

89%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

65%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

39%

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

64%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

27%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Kazakhstan U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kazakhstan U19 attack 0.86 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

65%

level

19%

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

16%

Serbia U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Milovanovic↳ D. Djokanovic

25'

T. Ismagulov

39'

L. Ivanovic

47'

I. Bekbolat

51'

I. Bekbolat↳ A. Nurgali

53'

R. Kenesbekov

57'

S. Andjelic← J. Ostojic

57'

V. Topic← J. Djurkovic

66'

D. Radovic← D. Djokanovic

66'

A. Smakov← Y. Petrik

66'

A. Mussaipov← A. Toleukhan

74'

D. Milovanovic

74'

A. Nurgali

74'

S. Nurbolat

77'

S. Tomovic← D. Milovanovic

77'

W. R. Millwood← V. Subotic

79'

V. Laturnus← A. Nurgali

79'

Y. Kerimkhan← I. Bekbolat

86'

90+6'

90+6'

90+6'

90+6'

90+3'

A. Moldagaliev← R. Kenesbekov

Serbia

Kazakhstan

1

Buch

2

Kalikulov

4

Zhexenbek

6

▼

Kenesbeko

14

Kaliyev

19

▼

Petrik

13

⚽

Ismagulov

3

Nurbolat

7

A

▼

Nurgali

11

⚽2

▼

Bekbolat

10

▼

1

19

5

15

16

20

▼

Djurkovic

10

Saric

8

▼

Ostojic

7

⚽

▼

Milovanov

9

A

▼

Djokanovi

11

▼

Subotic

57'▲S. Andjelic←▼J. Ostojic

57'▲V. Topic←▼J. Djurkovic

66'▲D. Radovic←▼D. Djokanovic

77'▲S. Tomovic←▼D. Milovanovic

77'▲W. R. Millwood←▼V. Subotic

Serbia U19 substitutes

12Bogdanovic3Andjelic4Baucal6Topic17Radovic18Ilic21Tomovic22Millwood

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

66'▲A. Smakov←▼Y. Petrik

66'▲A. Mussaipov←▼A. Toleukhan

79'▲V. Laturnus←▼A. Nurgali

79'▲Y. Kerimkhan←▼I. Bekbolat

90+3'▲A. Moldagaliev←▼R. Kenesbekov

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

12Gainullin5Arturuly8Smakov9Laturnus15Moldagaliev16Mamedov17Kerimkhan18Kagazbaev20Mussaipov

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 1–3 Kazakhstan U19

Kazakhstan U19 beat Serbia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on June 6, 2026.

Goals: D. Milovanovic (9'), T. Ismagulov (25'), I. Bekbolat (47', 51').

Serbia U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 1–3 Kazakhstan U19