Serbia U19 4–0 Gibraltar U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gibraltar U19

A. Damjanovic 74'

S. Borovina 38', 9'

U. Djordjevic 29'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Serbia U1992%

×Draw6%

Gibraltar U192%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchGibraltar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.03

0.58

Serbia U19

4.03

Gibraltar U19

0.58

Serbia U19 creates 595% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.63

creates per match

0.00

1.16

allows per match

6.42

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Gibraltar U19

0.00

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Gibraltar U19

6.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Gibraltar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

98%

Serbia U19 or Gibraltar U19

94%

Draw or Gibraltar U19

8%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

80%

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

98%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

90%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

74%

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

44%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

12%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

98%

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.42 → ÷2 → 4.03

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

92%

level

6%

Gibraltar U19 scores more

2%

Serbia U19 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Borovina↳ B. Kostic

29'

U. Djordjevic↳ D. Makevic

33'

V. Novicic

38'

S. Borovina↳ D. Rankovic

46'

A. Hadzimujovic← N. Simic

46'

S. Petrovic← A. Avdic

46'

S. Mladenovic← V. Novicic

49'

S. Stojkovic

51'

J. Rowbottom

56'

T. Montovio

56'

A. Damjanovic← B. Kostic

65'

L. Turrell← D. Smith

65'

O. Fortunato← S. Desoiza

72'

L. Ramirez← J. Rowbottom

72'

K. Buckley← T. Montovio

74'

A. Damjanovic↳ U. Djordjevic

78'

80'

81'

82'

Serbia

Gibraltar

1

2

5

4

3

▼

Parody

8

▼

Desoiza

6

Holden

10

▼

Smith

16

▼

Montovio

12

Schofield

20

▼

1

2

6

5

▼

Simic

3

▼

Avdic

14

▼

Novicic

22

A

Makevic

7

A

▼

Kostic

21

⚽A

Djordjevi

11

A

Rankovic

20

⚽2

Borovina

46'▲A. Hadzimujovic←▼N. Simic

46'▲S. Petrovic←▼A. Avdic

46'▲S. Mladenovic←▼V. Novicic

56'▲A. Damjanovic←▼B. Kostic

Serbia U19 substitutes

12Balevic4Hadzimujovic9Cvetkovic10Kostov13Petrovic17Zaric18Mladenovic19Damjanovic8Milosavljevic

65'▲L. Turrell←▼D. Smith

65'▲O. Fortunato←▼S. Desoiza

72'▲L. Ramirez←▼J. Rowbottom

72'▲K. Buckley←▼T. Montovio

78'▲S. Murien←▼A. Parody

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

13Charvetto7Ramirez9Caetano11Murien14Turrell15Aboudi17Fortunato18Buckley19Navas