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Serbia U19 vs Germany U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
CANC
12:00
Germany U19
Germany U19
9/8/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 4Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Serbia U1939%
×Draw22%
Germany U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
1.79
Germany U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
2.29
Germany U19
1.57

allows per match

Serbia U19
2.00
Germany U19
1.29

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Germany U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
61%
Serbia U19 or Germany U19
78%
Draw or Germany U19
61%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
20%
Germany U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
83%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
53%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
26%
Germany U19 1+ goals
83%
Germany U19 2+ goals
53%
Germany U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Germany U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 2.29 + Germany U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Germany U19 attack 1.57 + Serbia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
Germany U19 scores more
39%

Serbia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serbia U19 face Germany U19 (UEFA U19 Championship)

UEFA U19 Championship returns with Serbia U19 hosting Germany U19. Match starts September 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Serbia U19 host Germany U19 at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.