Serbia U19 3–1 Georgia U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Georgia U19

M. Cvetkovic 90'

U. Djordjevic 76'

V. Kostov 59'

S. Nioradze 36'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serbia U1957%

×Draw22%

Georgia U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.11

Serbia U19

1.96

Georgia U19

1.11

Serbia U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Georgia U19

1.07

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Georgia U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

79%

Serbia U19 or Georgia U19

78%

Draw or Georgia U19

43%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

34%

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

86%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

58%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

31%

Georgia U19 1+ goals

67%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

30%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Georgia U19 scores more

21%

Serbia U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

32'

36'

38'

41'

42'

43'

46'

57'

S. Murvanidze← L. Kuprava

59'

62'

69'

71'

71'

S. Mladenovic← V. Novicic

71'

U. Djordjevic← D. Rankovic

76'

U. Djordjevic↳ M. Cvetkovic

78'

R. Danelia← S. Nioradze

78'

A. Bartishvili← D. Gogilashvili

80'

A. Amisulashvili

86'

D. Makevic← J. Milosavljevic

88'

K. Doltmurziev← N. Chikovani

90+2'

A. Damjanovic← V. Kostov

90'

M. Cvetkovic↳ U. Djordjevic

Serbia

Georgia

1

4

3

15

17

13

⚽

▼

Nioradze

6

Ratiani

8

Khutsishv

5

▼

Kuprava

20

▼

Gogilashv

11

▼

1

2

5

4

3

14

▼

Novicic

10

⚽

▼

Kostov

8

▼

Milosavlj

7

▼

Kostic

9

⚽A

Cvetkovic

11

▼

Rankovic

71'▲L. Zaric←▼B. Kostic

71'▲S. Mladenovic←▼V. Novicic

71'▲U. Djordjevic←▼D. Rankovic

86'▲D. Makevic←▼J. Milosavljevic

90+2'▲A. Damjanovic←▼V. Kostov

Serbia U19 substitutes

6Pavlovic13Petrovic17Zaric18Mladenovic19Damjanovic20Borovina21Djordjevic22Makevic25Kandic

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

57'▲S. Murvanidze←▼L. Kuprava

78'▲R. Danelia←▼S. Nioradze

78'▲A. Bartishvili←▼D. Gogilashvili

88'▲K. Doltmurziev←▼N. Chikovani

Georgia U19 substitutes

12Chochoshvili2Bochorishvili7Murvanidze9Doltmurziev10Danelia14Gvazava16Dzneladze18Bartishvili19Peradze