Serbia U19 1–3 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Denmark U19

3/20/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Serbia U1926%

×Draw23%

Denmark U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.83

Serbia U19

1.23

Denmark U19

1.83

Denmark U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.63

creates per match

2.50

1.16

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Denmark U19

2.50

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Denmark U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

49%

Serbia U19 or Denmark U19

77%

Draw or Denmark U19

74%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

71%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

35%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

13%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

84%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

54%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Denmark U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Denmark U19 attack 2.50 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

26%

level

23%

Denmark U19 scores more

51%

Denmark U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff