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Serbia U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Serbia U1946%
×Draw26%
Bulgaria U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
1.46
Bulgaria U19
1.08

Serbia U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
1.63
Bulgaria U19
1.00

allows per match

Serbia U19
1.16
Bulgaria U19
1.30

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
72%
Serbia U19 or Bulgaria U19
74%
Draw or Bulgaria U19
54%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
22%
Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
77%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
43%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
18%
Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
66%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
29%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
46%
level
26%
Bulgaria U19 scores more
28%

Serbia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Bulgaria U19

Serbia U19 and Bulgaria U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.